When Globalization First Collapsed

Scroll

Based on Eric Cline's talk at Big Think

Picture a world where all the major civilizations trade with each other, exchange diplomats, and marry off their kings' daughters. Supply chains stretching thousands of miles. Copper from Cyprus, tin from Afghanistan, gold from Egypt. Nobody's self-sufficient. Sound familiar? This was 3,200 years ago.

Eric Cline, archaeologist at George Washington University, describes the collapse of this world in 1177 BC. And he says: The question isn't whether our civilization will collapse, but when.

The Ancient G8

In the 14th and 13th centuries BC, a globalized network existed around the Mediterranean: Mycenaeans, Minoans, Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Egyptians, Cypriots, Canaanites. Everyone was at most three connections away from anyone else — a "Small World Network," just like we have globally today.

They traded raw materials, food, and luxury goods. Leather shoes from Crete made it all the way to Babylon — King Hammurabi sent them back. Whether they were too small or so last millennium, we don't know. Kings gifted each other gold daggers and married each other's daughters. Diplomatically, commercially, through marriage — not so different from today.

Everything All at Once

They used to blame the "Sea Peoples" — mysterious invaders who attacked Egypt. Cline says: They're antiquity's scapegoat. More likely migrants fleeing drought, comparable to the Dust Bowl refugees of the 1930s.

What really happened was a polycrisis:

You'd survive one catastrophe. Maybe two. By three, you throw your hands up.

Who Made It — and Who Didn't

Cline had the US Army Corps of Engineers run thousands of simulations. Result: Just the simultaneous end of the Hittites and Ugarit was enough to crash the entire network.

His ranking of civilizations afterward:

Anti-fragile: The Phoenicians and Cypriots profited from the chaos. The Phoenicians standardized the alphabet — we still use it. The Cypriots became ironworking pioneers.

Adapted: Assyrians and Babylonians — on the Tigris and Euphrates, far enough inland. Government, writing, religion stayed intact.

Scraped By: Egypt survived, but for a while three or four people simultaneously claimed to be Pharaoh.

Barely Breathing: The Mycenaeans lost everything — palaces, writing, trade. 400 years to recovery.

Gone: The Hittites. "Don't be a Hittite," says Cline. Only great power without a major water source. No accident.

Seven Lessons

  1. Redundant systems — not just Plan A and B, but C, D, E, and F
  2. Know your alliances — who's your friend, who's not
  3. Flexibility — don't cling to "This is how we've always done it"
  4. Innovation — when bronze stopped working, they switched to iron. Today: What if lithium and rare earths disappear?
  5. Plan for extreme weather events
  6. Protect water resources
  7. Keep the working class happy — French Revolution, Russian Revolution, we know what happens

What If 2008 and COVID Had Hit Together?

Cline's most uncomfortable question: What if the 2008 financial crisis had struck ten years later — at the same time as the pandemic? "I'm not sure we'd be sitting here today."

Every society in history has either collapsed or transformed beyond recognition. Thinking it won't happen to us is naive.

The question is: Will we be Phoenicians — or Hittites?

A colleague of Cline's says: "An age that produces iron and the alphabet can't be a Dark Age." Knowing the past isn't an academic exercise. It's a survival strategy.

Eric Cline is the author of 1177 B.C. and After 1177 B.C.. The talk appeared on Big Think.

Sources